Do either fighter provide betting value? (Saturday June 11)

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Andre Fialho vs. Jake Matthews odds

Fialho odds
-150
Matthews Odds
+125
More less
2.5 (+100 / -140)
Venue
Singapore Indoor Stadium
Time
About. 10:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN PPV
Odds from Friday night and via BetMGM.

Andre Fialho and Jake Matthews find themselves in the spotlight on the main card of UFC 275 after Rogerio Bontorin was hospitalized and his fight with Manel Kape was cancelled.

Fialho has already fought three times in 2022 – January, April and May – and won back-to-back stoppages. Matthews, on the other hand, hasn’t fought since March 2021 and is looking to bounce back from being subjected to a loss to Sean Brady.

The odds for this fight are relatively close on both sides, with juice on the under 2.5 rounds. So where is the value here? I break down both sides of the confrontation below.

Tale of the Band

fialho Matthew
Registration 16-4-0 17-5-0
Avg. Battle time 7:25 11:26
Height 6’0″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 170 pounds. 170 pounds.
Range (inches) 74″ 73″
Position Orthodox Orthodox
Date of Birth 04/07/1994 08/19/1994
Signature strokes per minute 4.23 3.03
SS Accuracy 43% 44%
SS absorbed per minute 6.75 2.16
SS Defense 48% 61%
Avg. 0.00 1.93
Acc TD 0% 41%
Def TD 75% 66%
Mean of submission 0.0 0.6

Matthews seems to be a popular underdog selection this week, and I certainly understand the urgency of betting against Fialho.

The latter might be overvalued following back-to-back knockout wins over Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp.

Fialho is a one-dimensional headhunting boxer. He rarely throws punches or kicks to the legs. In addition, his grappling remains a significant question mark.

Still, Fialho has likely upped his game — compared to his prior career — after training at both the American Kickboxing Academy and Sanford MMA. I’m not sure this is the right place to make it disappear.

Aside from his victory over Li Jingliang, Matthews’ victories in the UFC have all come against fighters no longer with the promotion. And he’s unlikely to make any significant progress training at a small local gym in Australia.

In theory, Matthews has the wrestling and grappling advantage in this game (1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy). Still, if he can’t fight on the mat, Fialho is the much more powerful attacker and will almost certainly inflict more damage than his opponent.

That said, Matthews is the most diverse striker who is least likely to get into a fight (61% strike defense, compared to Fialho’s 48%), which is the type of fight Fialho desires.

Fialho v Matthews Pick

Ultimately, I’m not projecting value on either side of the match from a funding line or prop perspective, and the total also lines up with my projection.

Consequently, I will don’t bet on this fight and use it to assess if Fialho’s fight has improved.

For more analysis on the rest of the map, you can check out my projections for the entire roster here.

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