Absolute and limitless steering took a lot of coins out of my pocket on Saturday. Dustin Jacoby’s post-fight metrics were so clearly superior to getting the go-ahead by decision, but gruesome judging pushed his head down for the second time via that reason in 2022.
I’m taking a week off on both legs (20-10 YTD) in protest (and because this map stinks for it), but we still have plenty of fun solo betting spots on this map. I have four consecutive winners that I like relative to their odds.
Neil Magny to win (-125; 1.0 units)
We saw exactly the same fight for Neil Magny (-125) before.
Magny turned away strong and powerful forward Geoff Neal when Neal was on a 6-1 streak, and he fired him comfortably by decision. Magny’s 80″ range is just incredibly long, and don’t discount his ability. He himself has a +1.43 kill rate and – importantly – adds 2.31 kills every 15 minutes .
Daniel Rodriguez is a tough cookie to knock down (76% defense), but Magny’s length will come into play here on the feet. Additionally, D-Rod’s insane strike numbers took a big hit in his first ranked battle. He just had a +10 strike differential, landing 47% of his strikes and defending 56%. They’re still quality marks, but Li Jingliang (+0.60 hitting success rate) isn’t a world-class striker.
Magny also has a substantial advantage in pedigree with three wins over the currently ranked guys over Rodriguez’s. It’s a bit of a low point for the UFC veteran after being demolished – grappling – by the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Polyana Viana to win (-128; 1.0 units)
Unless Polyana Viana (-128) pull guard, I don’t see her losing this fight.
Now that’s a definite risk. She is so confident in her jiu-jitsu (2.5 submission attempts every 15 minutes) that it can get her in trouble giving up easy kills. His 50% takedown defense significantly underestimates his abilities due to his willingness to accept positions.
However, this week, I don’t think it will be important. Not only is Jinh-Yu Frey not wrestling a ton (0.62 kills per 15 mins), but Frey is probably scared of Viana’s wrestling as is. She was submitted by Kay Hansen, less educated, to start her career.
In a gripping match, give me Viana too. With a two-inch advantage in range, Viana (+0.64 hitting success rate) fared much better there than Frey (-1.01).
“Dama De Ferro’s” combat IQ is the only concern here. If she fights responsibly, she should be a short favorite in this one.
Amanda Lemos will win (+168; 0.5 units)
It hurts me as a Marina Rodriguez fan, but Amanda Lemos (+168) ticks too many boxes to skip its second main event.
She has the components to compete in this main event. Will they all unite to win it? I’m not sure, but there is value here.
Lemos’ 48% hitting defense is his biggest analytical weakness, but at women’s strawweight (115 pounds), there’s no dangerous power to punish that in most cases. Lemos hasn’t been knocked out since her debut in July 2017. Additionally, her defense was 66% against the dangerous and accurate Jessica Andrade two fights ago.
Lemos could really challenge Rodriguez’s grappling. Quietly, Rodriguez hasn’t faced a legitimate wrestling threat since knocking out Amanda Ribas after losing the first round that way. Mackenzie Dern (11% takedown accuracy) and Michelle Waterson (33%) are poor wrestlers, and Yan Xiaonan (1.32 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) isn’t really trying.
With 57% takedown accuracy and a submission from the aforementioned Waterson, Lemos has the best set of striking skills with true ground threat of any Rodriguez opponent to date. In a close fight there is value in betting on an underdog given only 37.3% implied odds of winning here.
Mark O. Madsen will win (+186; 0.5 units)
Grant Dawson’s first foray into lightweight was a success. He picked up seven eliminations in a dominating victory inside the distance. The only problem is that it wasn’t. really lightweight.
He took on Jared Gordon, who fought at 145lbs as recently as 2021. He’s small for that 155lb division, but now Dawson is set to be challenged immensely by the lightweight wrestling maven. Mark O. Madsen (+186).
Madsen was an Olympic silver medalist at the 2016 Games in Greco-Roman freestyle wrestling. He’s been tremendous in a four-start unbeaten streak in the UFC, posting 3.90 takedowns with 66% accuracy.
I don’t read too much into the 50% defense against Madsen’s takedown considering there are only two attempts. He even reversed Vinc Pichel’s takedown in part of the 5:10 time in control he got in that fight.
Dawson’s 40% takedown defense was also only on five attempts. These two aren’t often encountered by someone ready to fight on the mat. In this case, the idea that Madsen – the natural lightweight – could be bigger and stronger than Dawson is very real.
It’s really a toss up which one of these fighters wins with their similar styles, but those odds aren’t 50-50. Take the value here with “The Olympian”.
Dart throw of the week:
Darrick Minner by submission (+350; 0.25 units)
Wins aren’t everything in the UFC, but they heavily influence the betting lines.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is actually a moderate favorite on Darrick Minner (+164), and I don’t understand everything. Nuerdanbieke’s two-fight streak is nice, but his opponents to get them were a combined 3-6 in the UFC outside of “Wolverine” fights.
Minner is a true featherweight player. His dominating win over Charles Rosa (a four-time winner himself) proved that. Recently, Minner survived a mad dash against Darren Elkins and then got outplayed by the talented Ryan Hall. These guys have 22 UFC wins between them, so whoever moors Minner for those losses is crazy.
This is the typical buy low, sell high match you see in the UFC. Minner, with higher pedigree, slipped and Nuerdanbieke pounced. Still, Minner’s jiu-jitsu is world class. He averages 2.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes himself, and he’s defended seven of “The Wizard” Hall’s attempts.
Of Nuerdanbieke’s 10 professional losses, 6 have come by submission. Moreover, it should be mentioned that Nuerdanbieke has 48 “pro” fights on his CV at 28 years old. Some of those submission losses have come in competition well below the UFC norm.
It’s a short play that Minner ends up setting a “Wolverine” trap on the mat for the seventh time in Nuerdanbieke’s career.